Mining Outlook FY26-27

A question worth putting to your board this year.

Are we relying on commodity prices to protect margins, or are we using this window to structurally improve the business?

Here's why it matters for FY2026-27.

Australia's resources and energy exports are forecast to earn A$416 billion in FY27. That's a record-level base, and A$42 billion above the December forecast. Strong year.

Underneath it, the picture is harder. Mining productivity has fallen five years running, down 3.2% in 2024-25 alone, the largest fall of any industry. Labour is the most expensive in the country and headcount is flat. Iron ore earnings are easing as Brazil and Guinea add supply. The energy shock lifting LNG earnings is lifting diesel and chemical costs at the same time.

Good prices can hide weak recoveries, poor mine planning and thin leadership depth for a while. They don't fix any of it.

We've written up our full view of the year ahead. Seventeen pages on the economy, commodity by commodity, the project pipeline state by state, five constraints, three scenarios and where we think executive demand will emerge over the next 12 to 24 months. Nineteen sources, all public, all checkable.

If it's useful to your planning, it's here: https://www.thedowningnetwork.com.au/s/TDN-Australian-Mining-Outlook-FY26-27.pdf